Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C2 0xc242…3b04 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$4
other 33% −$1
world 9% −$1
sports 9% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -16.3% -24.3% 40% 20% -9.9%
≤30d 11 -7.4% -16.2% 55% 9% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -7.4% -16.2% 55% 9% -9.6%
all 11 -7.4% -16.2% 55% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 9% -9.6%
10% -24.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$486
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage13d
Avg bet$492
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $486 $486 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $485 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $453 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $422 +$78 +18%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $483 −$1 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $560 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $533 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $443 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $450 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $501 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $513 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $485.76 · official $485.76 (match) · 28 history records