Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc23f…51a0 sports 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$175 (+2%) realized +$239 · open −$64
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate83%70W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,027now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$248
14 days+$154
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$145
other 14% −$49
world 10% +$13
economics 3% +$2
finance 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +5.8% -4.2% 95% 55% -4.2%
≤30d 76 -6.7% -15.5% 82% 49% -7.5%
≤90d 77 -6.6% -15.5% 82% 48% -7.5%
all 84 -4.5% -13.6% 83% 48% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 48% -7.6%
10% -21.9% 12% -16.4%
15% -29.4% 2% -24.5%
20% -36.3% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$42 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$1,027
Realized+$239
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses70 / 14
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions8
Markets (closed)84 / 92
History coverage218d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals No 98¢ 88¢ $588 $525 −$64 (-11%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals No 96¢ 97¢ $144 $145 +$2 (+1%)
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ goals No 96¢ 96¢ $137 $137 −$0 (-0%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5 Under 95¢ 96¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Belgium 97¢ 99¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 96¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals No 97¢ 98¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals No 98¢ 87¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Alex Baena: 3+ goals Jun 21 $215 +$10 +5%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $52 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $52 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $25 +$2 +6%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $28 +$1 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Steur vs Pastikova Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Janicijevic vs Matoula Jun 21 $248 +$2 +1%
Gabriel Moreno: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $462 +$13 +3%
Donyell Malen: 2+ assists Jun 20 $71 +$4 +6%
Amelie Justine Hejtmanek vs. Marie Mettraux: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $396 +$3 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 20 $64 +$11 +18%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato Jun 20 $246 +$54 +22%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato Jun 19 $62 +$13 +20%
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North Americ Jun 19 $66 +$14 +21%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 19 $47 +$5 +11%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 19 $66 +$9 +13%
ITF Dinard: Milena Ciocan vs Lisa Claeys Jun 19 $122 +$28 +24%
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth Jun 18 $71 +$4 +5%
ITF Haskovo: Valeriia Artemeva vs Zhibek Kulambayeva Jun 18 $64 +$10 +16%
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula Jun 18 $64 +$10 +16%
ITF Klosters: Kristyna Paul vs Emily Seibold Jun 17 $66 +$9 +14%
ITF Saarlouis: Kaspar Mathes vs Marcel Zielinski Jun 17 $67 +$8 +12%
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu Jun 17 $194 +$32 +16%
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Keisuke Saitoh Jun 17 $62 +$14 +22%
ITF Tokyo: Azuma Visaya vs Naoya Honda Jun 17 $61 +$14 +24%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Joaquin Guilleme vs Niccolo Ciavarella Jun 17 $214 +$11 +5%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $130 −$130 -100%
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das Jun 16 $196 +$29 +15%
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney Jun 16 $128 +$22 +18%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $64 +$11 +17%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 15 $70 +$4 +6%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jun 15 $62 +$14 +22%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 15 $184 +$40 +22%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $66 +$9 +14%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $126 +$24 +19%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $315 +$60 +19%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 14 $87 +$6 +7%
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 14 $140 +$10 +8%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $72 +$3 +4%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $64 +$11 +18%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 13 $68 +$7 +10%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Seize the day (BO3) - The Internati Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese Jun 12 $69 +$5 +8%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Open Jun 12 $61 +$14 +24%
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Laura Mair Jun 12 $128 +$22 +18%
ITF Maanshan: Dong Ju Kim vs Matthew Dellavedova Jun 12 $55 +$15 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 95¢ $24 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 95¢ $24 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 95¢ $24 1h
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $18 1h
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $24 1h
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $24 1h
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $24 1h
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $24 1h
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $24 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY Belgium 98¢ $41 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY Belgium 97¢ $1 1h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY Belgium 97¢ $24 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $36 1h
Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $24 1h
Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,027.37 · official $1,027.37 (match) · 364 history records