Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:40:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc23f…beec other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+18%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$11
crypto 16% $0
world 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 44% +2.3%
≤30d 21 +9.2% -1.2% 62% 52% +10.5%
≤90d 21 +9.2% -1.2% 62% 52% +10.5%
all 21 +9.2% -1.2% 62% 52% +10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 52% +10.5%
10% -10.6% 43% -0.1%
15% -19.3% 33% -9.7%
20% -27.2% 29% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage9d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +148%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +163%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2 $0 +14%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +26%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 $0 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 $0 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 $0 +25%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 +$4 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 38h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 6d
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 7d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 87¢ $2 8d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records