Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc23e…7aad other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$10 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate56%31W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$17
other 17% −$5
politics 8% $0
finance 7% +$2
sports 6% +$1
weather 4% +$1
tech 3% +$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 11 -1.7% -11.0% 55% 0% -11.2%
all 55 -0.4% -9.9% 56% 7% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 7% -10.7%
10% -18.5% 5% -19.3%
15% -26.4% 2% -27.1%
20% -33.6% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses31 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage483d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $38 $33 −$5 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $65 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $53 −$7 -14%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $45 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $47 −$2 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $85 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $45 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $48 −$4 -8%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 09 $7 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 05 $6 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 01 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 28 $5 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $24 −$10 -41%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Poland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? May 07 $16 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on March 23? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Pocahontas" during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $1 $0 -33%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in February 20 Mar 20 $17 $0 +3%
Incarnate Word vs. Northwestern State Mar 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on March 3? Mar 02 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $38 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 13h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 75¢ $35 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $34 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $39 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $7 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 37¢ $53 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $41 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $5 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $45 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $27 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $2 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $27 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $29 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $22 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $51 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.00 · official $33.00 (match) · 171 history records