Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C2 0xc23e…98a4 sports 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,637 (-4%) realized −$4,637 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%23W / 29L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,447per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$1,851est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$5,790
other 1% −$1,850
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -4.9% -13.9% 39% 39% -20.2%
≤30d 52 -11.4% -19.8% 44% 44% -15.4%
≤90d 52 -11.4% -19.8% 44% 44% -15.4%
all 52 -11.4% -19.8% 44% 44% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 44% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 42% -23.5%
15% -34.5% 40% -30.9%
20% -40.9% 33% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$2,576) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,303 vs −$2,090 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,637
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses23 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1,851
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage19d
Avg bet$2,447
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2,032 +$2,219 +109%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $6,597 −$6,500 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,016 +$1,158 +114%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,531 +$3,152 +206%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2,930 +$2,726 +93%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $2,031 −$61 -3%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $2,947 −$2,421 -82%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $4,878 −$4,798 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5,089 −$5,000 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $6,004 −$5,919 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,018 +$1,456 +143%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,028 +$1,707 +84%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 13 $683 −$666 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 13 $1,317 −$1,288 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 13 $1,307 −$1,288 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 13 $1,311 −$1,288 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2,629 −$2,576 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,030 +$2,011 +99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10,099 −$2,000 -20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,536 −$1,500 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $10,145 +$9,049 +89%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $2,026 +$4,765 +235%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $359 −$350 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $3,032 −$3,000 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 08 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $5,812 +$9,446 +162%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,022 +$1,120 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,032 +$2,315 +114%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1,608 +$1,813 +113%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $5,037 −$5,000 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $1,964 −$1,939 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $2,018 +$866 +43%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $2,219 +$859 +39%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $101 +$40 +40%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $2,028 +$1,741 +86%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $101 +$23 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $2,020 −$2,000 -99%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $2,018 +$2,246 +111%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $1,016 +$1,121 +110%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $4,985 +$781 +16%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $2,580 −$2,546 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $1,637 +$946 +58%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 30 $2,035 −$2,000 -98%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 2 Winner May 28 $549 −$537 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 28 $2,815 +$1,403 +50%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $1,644 −$1,612 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $4,251 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 47¢ $2,032 3h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 50¢ $508 10h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 50¢ $507 10h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 51¢ $507 10h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 52¢ $507 10h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 52¢ $507 10h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 50¢ $507 10h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 50¢ $507 10h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 50¢ $508 10h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 49¢ $508 10h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 49¢ $508 10h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 52¢ $507 10h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 49¢ $508 10h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 49¢ $508 10h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1,016 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,683 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,531 22h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $5,657 23h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 4 Winner SELL LOS 49¢ $1,969 24h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 4 Winner BUY LOS 49¢ $2,031 26h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $2,930 29h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 6¢ $526 33h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 51¢ $2,839 33h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 34¢ $1,020 33h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $1,019 33h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 43¢ $3,052 34h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 37¢ $2,038 34h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 44¢ $934 34h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $5,070 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 106 history records