Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:11:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc23d…dbbc sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$128 (+4%) realized +$129 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%34W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days+$194
14 days+$175
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$179
other 31% −$1
politics 8% −$168
crypto 0% $0
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.6% -10.1% 71% 43% -3.3%
≤30d 72 -11.4% -19.9% 47% 40% -9.2%
≤90d 72 -11.4% -19.9% 47% 40% -9.2%
all 72 -11.4% -19.9% 47% 40% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 40% -9.2%
10% -27.5% 33% -17.9%
15% -34.5% 24% -25.8%
20% -40.9% 18% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses34 / 38
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage21d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 30 $179 −$82 -46%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $3 −$2 -99%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $2 $0 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +91%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $876 +$268 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $874 +$3 +0%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $868 +$6 +1%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 $0 -5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8 −$5 -68%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 +$4 +34%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$5 -47%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -40%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1 +$1 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +52%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 $0 -16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 $0 +9%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 +$1 +49%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +28%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 $0 +46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $17 +$3 +20%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 +$2 +113%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $9 −$7 -78%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $2 +$2 +140%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $16 +$3 +19%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 $0 -1%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -55%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 +$8 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $97 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $97 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $179 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $3 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 85¢ $3 9h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 30h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 32h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $876 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $877 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $874 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 83¢ $100 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 83¢ $773 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $868 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 8d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 8d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 8d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 35¢ $5 8d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 8d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 8d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 8d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 8d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 8d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $1 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.59 · official $94.59 (match) · 171 history records