Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:16:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C2 0xc23a…b1b6 sports 359 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$509 (+0%) realized +$504 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%338W / 17L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,081per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$10,168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$75
14 days+$96
30 days+$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$160
weather 31% +$241
other 18% +$81
finance 3% +$13
tech 2% +$9
crypto 2% +$7
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 227 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 355 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
all 355 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×68.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1664.49 per $1 lost it wins $1664.49
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$10,168
Realized+$504
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses338 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)355 / 359
History coverage39d
Avg bet$1,081
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,997 $2,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,997 $2,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,997 $2,998 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,171 $1,172 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $999 +$1 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $999 +$1 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $999 +$1 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $999 +$1 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $999 +$1 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $320 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,213 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $303 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 18 $382 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,556 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $222 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1,090 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,458 +$1 +0%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will Marcus Thuram be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $232 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $214 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $841 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $219 50m
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,323 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,043 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $2,997 3h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 8h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 8h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 8h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $82 8h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 8h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $606 8h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 8h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $36 8h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $133 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $2,997 10h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $999 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $366 10h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $999 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,167.50 · official $10,167.50 (match) · 1601 history records