Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:46:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C2 0xc237…0432 other 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$795 (-3%) realized −$698 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate72%51W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1,435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$619
14 days−$457
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$4
other 26% −$1,097
culture 22% +$566
tech 14% +$261
world 2% −$355
sports 1% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -22.4% -29.8% 61% 28% -18.3%
≤30d 42 -11.0% -19.5% 74% 31% -9.5%
≤90d 71 -13.8% -22.0% 72% 32% -11.2%
all 71 -13.8% -22.0% 72% 32% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 32% -11.2%
10% -29.5% 14% -19.7%
15% -36.3% 7% -27.5%
20% -42.6% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$140 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1,435
Realized−$698
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses51 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)71 / 87
History coverage52d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $370 $326 −$44 (-12%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 85¢ $285 $285 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 6¢ 13¢ $43 $99 +$56 (+129%)
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 10¢ 22¢ $42 $97 +$55 (+130%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 99¢ $80 $86 +$6 (+7%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 79¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 48¢ 10¢ $192 $40 −$152 (-79%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 85¢ 84¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+5%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+38%)
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 85¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Radu Burnete be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-70%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $1,145 +$135 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $171 −$170 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $192 −$190 -99%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $240 +$33 +14%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 14 $322 −$217 -68%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $262 −$260 -99%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $262 −$33 -12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $465 +$150 +32%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $479 +$24 +5%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $115 +$4 +4%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $20 +$6 +27%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $400 +$17 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $116 −$115 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $75 −$59 -78%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $100 +$36 +36%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $503 +$54 +11%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $441 +$37 +8%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 04 $130 +$5 +4%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $110 +$8 +8%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $133 +$11 +9%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $90 +$11 +12%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $1,266 +$124 +10%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives i May 31 $701 +$32 +4%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 May 31 $1,003 +$59 +6%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $10 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? May 31 $5 +$2 +36%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 28 $201 $0 +0%
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? May 27 $742 +$62 +8%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 25 $646 +$123 +19%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Mercedes have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Canadi May 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 24 $36 +$8 +22%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $704 +$107 +15%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 23 $452 +$33 +7%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 19 $181 −$180 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 18 $211 +$21 +10%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $200 +$5 +3%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $379 −$375 -99%
Will Croatia win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $130 +$6 +4%
Will Moldova win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $371 +$11 +3%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $39 −$12 -30%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 15 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $111 +$15 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 6m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 6m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 88¢ $30 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 88¢ $171 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $55 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $231 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 1h
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 3¢ $16 1h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 21h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $40 21h
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $30 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 23h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 25h
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 17¢ $307 25h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 25h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 37h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 48¢ $207 37h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 100¢ $140 45h
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $80 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 45h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $112 45h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $30 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 45h
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the Worl BUY No 85¢ $20 45h
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $10 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $182 46h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 SELL No 99¢ $273 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 46h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,435.43 · official $1,435.43 (match) · 243 history records