Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C2 0xc233…0561 sports 36 markets active 2d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,352 (-9%) realized −$9,352 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,972per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1,500est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$27,741
14 days−$17,428
30 days−$10,579
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$10,579
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -42.1% -47.6% 29% 29% -53.1%
≤30d 36 -10.3% -18.9% 47% 47% -18.5%
≤90d 36 -10.3% -18.9% 47% 47% -18.5%
all 36 -10.3% -18.9% 47% 47% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 47% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 47% -26.3%
15% -33.7% 47% -33.4%
20% -40.2% 47% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$4,048) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,629 vs −$2,909 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,352
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1,500
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage20d
Avg bet$2,972
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Maddison Inglis Jun 15 $2,037 −$2,037 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 15 $3,044 −$3,044 -100%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $3,044 −$3,044 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $4,048 −$4,048 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $4,018 −$4,018 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $3,557 −$3,557 -100%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 15 $3,101 −$3,101 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 15 $5,054 −$5,054 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4,060 −$4,060 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 15 $4,068 −$4,068 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $4,206 −$4,141 -98%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $3,035 +$1,882 +62%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $3,225 +$2,775 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $2,532 +$1,854 +73%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $2,537 +$2,431 +96%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2,532 −$2,500 -99%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $3,567 +$5,990 +168%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $2,029 +$1,892 +93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $2,028 +$1,676 +83%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $2,535 +$2,206 +87%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $2,029 −$2,000 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $187 +$213 +114%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $1,025 +$995 +97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $4,046 +$2,463 +61%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $4,051 +$2,868 +71%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 02 $2,536 −$2,500 -99%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 02 $2,534 −$2,500 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $5,063 +$3,534 +70%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 01 $2,532 −$2,500 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $5,070 +$4,363 +86%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $2,511 +$2,759 +110%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $5,069 +$4,190 +83%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $2,915 +$2,610 +90%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 29 $2,535 −$2,500 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 25 $612 −$603 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $2,032 2d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,917 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $1,612 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $2,174 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $1,612 4d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu SELL Emma Raducanu 100¢ $4,968 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $2,532 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $2,532 4d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $3,035 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $4,060 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 38¢ $1,019 6d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 50¢ $2,537 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 37¢ $510 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 36¢ $510 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 36¢ $510 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 36¢ $510 6d
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 36¢ $510 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $3,044 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 51¢ $2,029 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 51¢ $2,029 8d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $2,028 8d
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 53¢ $2,535 8d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Shuai Zhang 40¢ $1,018 8d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Shuai Zhang 39¢ $1,527 8d
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala BUY Shuai Zhang 38¢ $555 8d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $187 9d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $4,051 9d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $4,046 9d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $1,025 9d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $4,018 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records