Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:03:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc22f…892d crypto 448 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,035 (-5%) realized −$2,035 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%189W / 259L
Whale WR15%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$221
7 days+$221
14 days+$179
30 days−$746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,602
sports 7% −$207
other 3% −$1,270
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +8.1% -2.2% 57% 52% +11.5%
≤30d 137 -13.2% -21.5% 43% 41% -16.4%
≤90d 303 -14.1% -22.2% 42% 37% -17.4%
all 448 -9.0% -17.7% 42% 39% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 39% -16.6%
10% -25.6% 37% -24.6%
15% -32.8% 33% -31.8%
20% -39.4% 29% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 15% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$63 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,035
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses189 / 259
Whale WR (big bets)15%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)448 / 448
History coverage141d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 448 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 30 $82 +$42 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 30 $56 −$53 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 30 $129 +$29 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 30 $117 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 30 $77 +$45 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 30 $66 +$42 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 30 $32 −$27 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 30 $59 −$11 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 30 $70 +$47 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $45 +$42 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $115 +$60 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $41 −$14 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 29 $17 +$18 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $3 +$5 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $17 +$24 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 29 $27 +$15 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$30 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$7 -24%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $207 −$13 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $124 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $82 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $56 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $9 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1419 history records