Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C2 0xc22e…81c7 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$222 (-5%) realized −$219 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +110% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +83% what you keep after slip
Net edge+83%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,082
7 days+$1,349
14 days+$1,473
30 days+$1,473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$1,348
sports 12% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+90.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +106.9% +87.2% 75% 75% +29.2%
≤30d 5 +110.2% +90.2% 80% 80% +31.4%
≤90d 5 +110.2% +90.2% 80% 80% +31.4%
all 5 +110.2% +90.2% 80% 80% +31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +90.2% 80% +31.4%
10% +72.0% 80% +18.8%
15% +55.4% 80% +7.4%
20% +40.2% 80% -3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +110% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$477 vs −$434 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.39 per $1 lost it wins $4.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 16
History coverage12d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 64¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $75 $74 −$2 (-2%)
Brazil leading at halftime? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 39¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$117 +118%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 23 $826 +$965 +117%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,904 −$434 -23%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $325 +$701 +216%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $100 +$124 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $80 1h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $62 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 39¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $77 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $77 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 45¢ $100 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 39¢ $94 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 45¢ $826 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $827 4d
Brazil leading at halftime? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY $117 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $117 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $521 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 14¢ $165 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O BUY 37¢ $204 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 17¢ $133 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 31¢ $325 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $325 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $141 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 9d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $101 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $337.07 · official $337.07 (match) · 48 history records