Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:51:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc22c…da61 crypto 461 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$379 (-8%) realized −$377 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%230W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days−$92
14 days−$353
30 days−$380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$199
crypto 19% −$182
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -13.8% -22.0% 46% 44% -12.1%
≤30d 460 -9.2% -17.8% 50% 48% -17.1%
≤90d 460 -9.2% -17.8% 50% 48% -17.1%
all 460 -9.2% -17.8% 50% 48% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 48% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 44% -25.1%
15% -32.9% 41% -32.3%
20% -39.5% 39% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$377
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses230 / 230
Open positions1
Markets (closed)460 / 461
History coverage29d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $195 $194 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $122 +$72 +59%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $120 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +66%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$23 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $71 +$42 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $404 −$153 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 +$72 +48%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $243 −$185 -76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $144 −$31 -22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$36 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $212 +$132 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$3 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$16 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $197 46m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $194 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $123 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $110 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $124 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 17h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.50 · official $193.50 (match) · 874 history records