Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:18:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C2 0xc22b…c158 sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$47 (+4%) realized +$86 · open −$39
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$35
other 26% −$45
crypto 3% −$30
world 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +12.9% +2.2% 48% 48% -8.1%
≤30d 40 +12.9% +2.2% 48% 48% -8.1%
≤90d 40 +12.9% +2.2% 48% 48% -8.1%
all 40 +12.9% +2.2% 48% 48% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 48% -8.1%
10% -7.6% 48% -16.9%
15% -16.5% 48% -24.9%
20% -24.7% 48% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$25 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 44
History coverage6d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Over 48¢ 28¢ $34 $20 −$14 (-42%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 38¢ $26 $19 −$7 (-26%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 44¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-19%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 26¢ 12¢ $26 $12 −$14 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$58 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $42 −$41 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 −$42 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 +$47 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$60 +307%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 +$21 +114%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$51 +165%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $34 +$26 +75%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $27 +$23 +86%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 +$16 +114%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $11 +$19 +165%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +96%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +86%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$59 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 +$43 +140%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $26 +$34 +134%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 $0 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 −$2 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$16 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 +$18 +158%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $27 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $22 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $4 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 41¢ $33 7h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $42 7h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $43 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $19 11h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $43 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $20 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 27h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $20 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 27h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $31 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 22¢ $1 28h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $17 34h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $17 41h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $27 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $11 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $14 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $11 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 53¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.15 · official $68.40 (match) · 70 history records