Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc22b…5524 politics 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 629d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%4W / 64L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 96% −$15
other 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
all 68 -0.3% -9.8% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

629d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses4 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage629d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 20 $55 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $112 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $55 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $56 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $56 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $57 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tencent have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Paul Mango be Trump's HHS Secretary? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 27 $7 $0 +0%
Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris attend presidential inauguration? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
UK civil war in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trey McBride be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Matt Dolan be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Frank LaRose be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Berachain airdrop in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Eight Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
No Trump coin reaches $1b? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will RB Leipzig win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.30-1.34°C? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Nebraska win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Giants win the NFC Championship? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in November? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Xavier McKinney win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Trump wins and picks Dimon for Treasury Secretary? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will three SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $26 12h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 12h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $55 11d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $55 12d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 23d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 23d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 31d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 32d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 37d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 38d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 40d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 40d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 44d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 45d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 64d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 64d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 67d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 68d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $56 69d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $56 69d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 81d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 81d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 81d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 93d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 93d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $57 96d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $57 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records