Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C2 0xc22a…8259 sports 412 markets active 2h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$604 (+1%) realized +$614 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%162W / 236L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$863now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$37
14 days+$27
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$926
other 23% −$207
politics 20% −$140
economics 8% −$129
crypto 5% −$13
world 1% −$16
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +145.5% +122.1% 100% 100% +121.0%
≤30d 30 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 43% -7.9%
≤90d 303 -13.2% -21.5% 40% 37% -23.5%
all 398 -7.9% -16.7% 41% 37% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 37% -8.6%
10% -24.6% 36% -17.3%
15% -31.9% 33% -25.3%
20% -38.6% 29% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$29 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$863
Realized+$614
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses162 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions14
Markets (closed)398 / 412
History coverage545d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $147 $173 +$26 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $82 $138 +$56 (+68%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $155 $129 −$26 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $99 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $108 $79 −$29 (-27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $106 $76 −$30 (-28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+31%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $48 $42 −$6 (-12%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY FLY 39¢ 38¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS LOS 19¢ 12¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 186 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY Jun 26 $15 +$21 +139%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $10 +$15 +152%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 01 $29 −$16 -56%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $15 −$1 -6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $5 +$24 +473%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 01 $10 +$6 +57%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $10 +$7 +67%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner May 30 $5 +$4 +76%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 30 $10 +$7 +70%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 30 $15 +$20 +134%
LoL: Barcząca Esports vs BOMBA Team (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: VIT (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 29 $15 +$15 +101%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 29 $10 +$7 +73%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Cha May 29 $15 +$15 +101%
Game Handicap: DNS.C (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) May 29 $15 +$14 +94%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 28 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 28 $10 +$7 +73%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito De May 27 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs KT Rolster Challengers (+1.5) May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) May 27 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 27 $2 +$13 +650%
LoL: Uwinks vs Arneb (BO3) - LJL Regular Season May 26 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 26 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 26 $8 −$8 -99%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) May 17 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: Sentinels vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $152 −$99 -65%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: GAM Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3) - LCP Regular Season May 17 $12 +$4 +36%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 17 $15 +$17 +114%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) May 17 $15 +$13 +89%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 17 $13 +$15 +114%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+1.5) May 17 $14 −$1 -4%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $16 −$2 -10%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $16 −$2 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $16 −$2 -12%
Game Handicap: GAM (-1.5) vs CTBC Flying Oyster (+1.5) May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Game Handicap: DSG (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) May 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY BUY FLY 39¢ $15 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS BUY LOS 19¢ $15 1h
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY SELL FLY 100¢ $37 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL FlyQuest 100¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 2h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs FlyQuest (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY FlyQuest 39¢ $10 2h
LoL Cross Regional: DNS vs FLY BUY FLY 41¢ $15 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 2h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 20¢ $5 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $159 13d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $150 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $109 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $151 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $159 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $142 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $150 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $103 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 14d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 14d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $81 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $84 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $102 14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $102 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $151 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $159 14d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit BUY KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas 46¢ $14 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $862.69 · official $862.69 (match) · 1094 history records