Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc228…8d98 crypto 289 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$579 (+9%) realized +$575 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%157W / 131L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days+$245
14 days+$256
30 days+$474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$358
politics 2% −$20
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +8.3% -2.0% 63% 63% +3.6%
≤30d 186 +11.2% +0.6% 65% 64% -0.4%
≤90d 288 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 52% -4.5%
all 288 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 52% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 52% -4.5%
10% -19.1% 47% -13.6%
15% -26.9% 36% -21.9%
20% -34.1% 32% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$575
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses157 / 131
Open positions1
Markets (closed)288 / 289
History coverage43d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 51¢ 56¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $160 +$174 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$48 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$60 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$16 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$14 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$8 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$12 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$10 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $62 +$80 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$8 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$21 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$12 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$17 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $35 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $32 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $42 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $9 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $9 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $12 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.31 · official $38.82 · 971 history records