Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc226…18a9 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized +$31 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.8% -2.4% 60% 60% -10.9%
≤30d 10 +7.8% -2.4% 60% 60% -10.9%
≤90d 10 +7.8% -2.4% 60% 60% -10.9%
all 10 +7.8% -2.4% 60% 60% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 60% -10.9%
10% -11.8% 60% -19.4%
15% -20.3% 60% -27.2%
20% -28.1% 50% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$100 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 52¢ $99 $96 −$3 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 34¢ $99 $67 −$32 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $101 −$99 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $101 −$101 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $101 +$68 +67%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $101 +$91 +90%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $102 +$135 +133%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $50 +$35 +70%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $49 +$21 +42%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $50 +$38 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $100 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $100 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $101 25h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $101 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $101 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $101 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $49 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $50 4d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.20 · official $163.22 (match) · 20 history records