Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc226…abb7 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-19%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% $0
sports 17% −$13
crypto 6% −$3
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-50.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -45.2% -50.4% 22% 11% -29.0%
≤30d 9 -45.2% -50.4% 22% 11% -29.0%
≤90d 9 -45.2% -50.4% 22% 11% -29.0%
all 9 -45.2% -50.4% 22% 11% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.4% 11% -29.0%
10% -55.2% 11% -35.8%
15% -59.5% 11% -42.0%
20% -63.5% 0% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -28%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records