Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:35:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc221…1ed3 other 544 markets active 0h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$300 (-0%) realized −$438 · open +$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate79%421W / 114L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$203
7 days−$241
14 days−$483
30 days−$474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$117
crypto 13% +$5
sports 2% −$341
politics 2% −$14
tech 1% +$4
culture 1% −$3
weather 0% +$9
world 0% −$23
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -20.1% -27.7% 41% 37% -21.7%
≤30d 102 -20.0% -27.6% 49% 27% -24.9%
≤90d 224 -6.4% -15.3% 75% 17% -11.0%
all 535 -2.3% -11.6% 79% 7% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 7% -9.8%
10% -20.1% 4% -18.4%
15% -27.8% 4% -26.3%
20% -34.9% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$550
Realized−$438
Unrealized+$138
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses421 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions9
Markets (closed)535 / 544
History coverage193d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 535 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 39¢ 100¢ $46 $119 +$73 (+156%)
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu Ru Xi Wu 58¢ 99¢ $48 $82 +$34 (+71%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $48 $65 +$18 (+37%)
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Nick Hardt 54¢ 74¢ $47 $64 +$17 (+36%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $50 $51 +$2 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 91¢ 86¢ $49 $46 −$3 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $49 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 +$4 +9%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $50 +$19 +38%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $79 −$54 -69%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $30 −$11 -38%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $49 +$59 +121%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $100 −$41 -41%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $29 +$12 +40%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $50 +$38 +75%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +146%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$11 -62%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $32 −$29 -92%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 +$57 +114%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $32 +$35 +110%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $43 +$31 +72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 −$22 -43%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$58 +58%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 $0 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $62 +$11 +18%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $44 +$17 +40%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 +$15 +31%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $16 +$12 +79%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$17 +177%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $70 −$8 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +65%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$9 +97%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 +$33 +66%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $49 29m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $48 1h
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu BUY Ru Xi Wu 58¢ $48 1h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez SELL Juan Estevez 100¢ $25 1h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez SELL Juan Estevez 85¢ $24 1h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 54¢ $48 1h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 90¢ $49 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $19 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $0 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $17 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 62¢ $14 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $48 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $34 16h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $45 16h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 72¢ $28 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $24 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $49 20h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 72¢ $10 20h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 72¢ $13 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $30 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 48¢ $18 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $30 29h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $108 33h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 44¢ $49 37h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 30¢ $50 37h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $59 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $550.21 · official $548.96 (match) · 1417 history records