Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C2 0xc220…5012 sports 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$283 (+7%) realized +$286 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%48W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$81
7 days+$342
14 days+$251
30 days+$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$361
other 21% −$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +21.8% +10.2% 45% 45% +2.0%
≤30d 126 +5.1% -4.9% 38% 38% -3.4%
≤90d 126 +5.1% -4.9% 38% 38% -3.4%
all 126 +5.1% -4.9% 38% 38% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 38% -3.4%
10% -14.0% 37% -12.6%
15% -22.3% 37% -21.1%
20% -30.0% 35% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$27 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized+$286
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses48 / 78
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions5
Markets (closed)126 / 131
History coverage13d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 52¢ $78 $77 −$1 (-1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Ghana 19¢ 18¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 31¢ 30¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $21 +$39 +181%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $29 +$22 +73%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $44 +$72 +165%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$24 +117%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $48 +$138 +287%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $61 +$235 +383%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$135 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $99 +$47 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $83 +$44 +54%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $177 +$24 +14%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $99 +$383 +388%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $85 −$83 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $90 −$88 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $94 −$92 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 −$89 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $112 −$48 -43%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $62 −$61 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $92 −$91 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $79 −$78 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $27 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 +$38 +124%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $35 +$91 +262%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$46 +237%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $27 −$27 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$87 +291%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$71 +241%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $27 +$32 +118%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $36 +$21 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $36 −$36 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $24 +$28 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$32 +158%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$42 +414%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $79 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $39 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $41 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $41 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $28 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $21 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $23 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $44 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $29 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $30 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $20 11h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $20 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $40 11h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $44 11h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $186 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $297 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $48 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $61 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $146 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $117 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 7¢ $9 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 58¢ $201 15h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $177 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $99 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $101 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $83 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $99 36h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $85 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $90 37h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $94 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.98 · official $219.98 (match) · 188 history records