Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C2 0xc21d…569d crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$67 (+9%) realized +$143 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$73
sports 22% +$53
crypto 16% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 50% +13.7%
≤30d 7 -1.6% -11.0% 43% 43% +13.6%
≤90d 7 -1.6% -11.0% 43% 43% +13.6%
all 7 -1.6% -11.0% 43% 43% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 43% +13.6%
10% -19.5% 43% +2.7%
15% -27.3% 43% -7.2%
20% -34.4% 43% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$20 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized+$143
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage12d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 63¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos Gustavo Almeida 66¢ 62¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 72¢ 26¢ $90 $33 −$57 (-64%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 30¢ 1¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$37 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 +$76 +75%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 58m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Gustavo Almeida 66¢ $51 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $51 26h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $152 26h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 34h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $51 34h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.61 · official $433.61 (match) · 19 history records