Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:31:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C2 0xc21c…e702 crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$162 (+5%) realized +$154 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate88%38W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day56.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +11.1% +0.5% 88% 65% -3.4%
≤30d 43 +11.1% +0.5% 88% 65% -3.4%
≤90d 43 +11.1% +0.5% 88% 65% -3.4%
all 43 +11.1% +0.5% 88% 65% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 65% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -9.1% 37% -12.7%
15% -17.9% 21% -21.1%
20% -25.9% 7% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$68 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses38 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 73¢ 100¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+36%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 71¢ 68¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $127 +$36 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $51 −$16 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$32 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $102 −$96 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $206 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $204 +$79 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.77 · official $43.91 · 98 history records