Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc21c…83ad crypto 744 markets active 4h ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$261 (+2%) realized +$259 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%292W / 525L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day47.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$753
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -57.3% -61.4% 22% 22% -50.8%
≤30d 384 -37.9% -43.8% 31% 31% -31.9%
≤90d 817 -15.5% -23.6% 36% 35% -23.0%
all 817 -15.5% -23.6% 36% 35% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 35% -23.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 35% -30.4%
15% -37.6% 35% -37.1%
20% -43.7% 32% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$259
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses292 / 525
Open positions1
Markets (closed)817 / 744
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day47.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 817 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Up 8¢ 10¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 1PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 4AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 27? Jun 17 $4 −$11 -314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 2PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 31, 9AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 11AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +42%
XRP Up or Down - March 29, 7AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 31, 2PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$6 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2PM ET Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 1, 12PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 8¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $24 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $29 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $23 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $18 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $13 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $9 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $33 25h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 42h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $8 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $5 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $8 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $23 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $32 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $29 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $35 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 43h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $20 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $3 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.51 · official $6.51 (match) · 3500 history records