Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc218…2c33 sports 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$596 (+2%) realized +$596 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate83%99W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$194
14 days+$381
30 days+$790
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$724
crypto 7% +$50
other 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -7.1% -16.0% 87% 22% -7.5%
≤30d 119 +1.0% -8.6% 83% 40% -6.6%
≤90d 119 +1.0% -8.6% 83% 40% -6.6%
all 119 +1.0% -8.6% 83% 40% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 40% -6.6%
10% -17.4% 22% -15.5%
15% -25.4% 13% -23.7%
20% -32.7% 8% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$82 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$596
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses99 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage29d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $502 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $601 +$18 +3%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $501 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $616 +$123 +20%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $500 +$4 +1%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $497 +$115 +23%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $255 −$253 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $236 +$17 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $519 +$15 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $519 +$15 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $520 +$20 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $519 +$15 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $519 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $520 +$23 +4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $519 +$12 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $519 +$10 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $18 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $208 +$10 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $188 +$20 +11%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $77 +$11 +14%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $520 +$37 +7%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $519 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $301 +$32 +11%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $519 +$14 +3%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $519 +$21 +4%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $519 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $519 +$6 +1%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $519 +$17 +3%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $519 +$19 +4%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $388 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $504 +$13 +3%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $299 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $196 −$73 -37%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $113 +$9 +8%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $91 +$22 +24%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $80 +$11 +13%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $56 +$25 +44%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $50 +$5 +11%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $87 +$31 +35%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $65 +$22 +34%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $32 +$33 +105%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $31 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $270 −$71 -26%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $502 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $601 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $522 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 96¢ $501 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $738 5h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Minnesota Lynx 83¢ $616 6h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Washington Mystics 100¢ $504 7h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 99¢ $500 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $612 18h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 81¢ $497 22h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 68¢ $255 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $253 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $236 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $534 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 97¢ $519 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $534 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 97¢ $519 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $540 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 96¢ $520 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $534 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 97¢ $519 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $523 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 99¢ $519 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $543 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 243 history records