Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:21:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc216…265c other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-8%) realized −$33 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$52
sports 23% −$16
crypto 6% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +4.1% -5.9% 45% 45% -20.1%
≤30d 11 +4.1% -5.9% 45% 45% -20.1%
≤90d 11 +4.1% -5.9% 45% 45% -20.1%
all 11 +4.1% -5.9% 45% 45% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 45% -20.1%
10% -14.9% 36% -27.7%
15% -23.1% 36% -34.7%
20% -30.6% 27% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$23 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 +$32 +361%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $63 +$28 +45%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 −$12 -55%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $53 −$41 -78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $75 −$22 -29%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 +$9 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $41 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $46 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $63 28h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 28h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 28h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 28h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 28h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $9 30h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 30h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $39 30h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 30h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 30h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.53 · official $80.53 (match) · 31 history records