Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc215…e50e other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$369 (-12%) realized −$376 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 25% −$232
other 25% +$15
sports 24% −$83
crypto 23% −$69
politics 3% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +97.0% +78.3% 100% 100% +78.3%
≤30d 6 +19.9% +8.5% 83% 33% +1.5%
≤90d 36 -25.9% -33.0% 36% 11% -15.4%
all 37 -26.0% -33.1% 35% 11% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 11% -20.7%
10% -39.5% 3% -28.3%
15% -45.3% 3% -35.2%
20% -50.7% 3% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$30 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$376
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage90d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $144 $150 +$7 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$20 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $90 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? May 30 $87 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $11 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $399 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 01 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 01 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 01 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 01 $120 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 01 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 01 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? May 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 30 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 30 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 30 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 30 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $297 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $400 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 30? Apr 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 30? Apr 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 30? Apr 30 $0 $0 -100%
Alicante: Sebastian Ofner vs Pablo Carreno Busta Apr 02 $82 −$82 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $811 −$232 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 6d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $70 19d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 19d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 19d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 19d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $17 19d
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? SELL Yes 87¢ $87 27d
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 27d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $12 36d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 44d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 48d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes $0 48d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes $0 49d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 49d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 55d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes $0 56d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes $0 56d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $400 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $55 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $57 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 56d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes $0 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $9 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? BUY No $0 56d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $79 56d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $399 56d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $296 56d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $297 56d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $399 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.36 · official $150.06 (match) · 84 history records