Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C2 0xc215…e6a3 crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+3%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%34W / 28L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$32
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +5.6% -4.5% 55% 52% -5.7%
≤30d 62 +5.6% -4.5% 55% 52% -5.7%
≤90d 62 +5.6% -4.5% 55% 52% -5.7%
all 62 +5.6% -4.5% 55% 52% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 52% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 44% -14.7%
15% -22.0% 34% -23.0%
20% -29.6% 31% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses34 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$44 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$12 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$36 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$9 +34%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$26 +518%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$14 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $70 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $6 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records