Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C2 0xc214…105d sports 573 markets active 0h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17,080 (-8%) realized −$17,063 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%290W / 280L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$2,696est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days−$2,415
14 days−$6,663
30 days−$9,628
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$17,954
crypto 9% +$100
other 7% −$1,209
finance 1% +$57
politics 1% −$298
weather 0% −$490
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -15.7% -23.7% 36% 36% -15.4%
≤30d 249 -15.4% -23.4% 42% 40% -16.2%
≤90d 467 -15.9% -23.9% 44% 42% -19.3%
all 570 -10.8% -19.3% 51% 44% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 44% -17.3%
10% -27.0% 36% -25.2%
15% -34.1% 29% -32.4%
20% -40.5% 22% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$281 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$17,063
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses290 / 280
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$2,696
Open positions3
Markets (closed)570 / 573
History coverage239d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $50 $58 +$7 (+15%)
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Estar Backs 20¢ 20¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Estar Backs 10¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $280 −$82 -29%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $75 +$269 +359%
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Cilic Jun 16 $51 −$9 -18%
Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs Medjedovic Jun 16 $51 −$12 -24%
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Diallo Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $102 +$163 +160%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $230 −$30 -13%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$4 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $89 −$49 -55%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$30 -84%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$30 +74%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $28 +$19 +69%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$9 +201%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $151 −$148 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $474 −$254 -54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $143 +$236 +165%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $50 +$21 +43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $309 −$110 -36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $151 −$86 -57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $232 −$85 -36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $173 −$170 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $100 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $113 −$13 -11%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $202 −$120 -59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $92 −$88 -96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $181 +$42 +23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $121 +$42 +35%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $210 −$163 -78%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $204 −$114 -56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $412 −$410 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,063 −$482 -45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $713 −$213 -30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $409 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $697 −$138 -20%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $474 +$428 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $610 +$650 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $248 −$149 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 20¢ $48 0m
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 42m
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 10¢ $25 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 3¢ $12 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 22¢ $59 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 55¢ $152 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 46¢ $100 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 53¢ $0 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 47¢ $39 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 53¢ $39 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 92¢ $58 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 68¢ $286 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 14¢ $62 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 22¢ $13 7h
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Cilic SELL Cilic 41¢ $42 7h
Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs Medjedovic SELL Rinderknech 48¢ $39 7h
Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs Medjedovic BUY Rinderknech 61¢ $51 7h
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Cilic BUY Cilic 48¢ $51 7h
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Diallo BUY Diallo 39¢ $102 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $49 8h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 93¢ $265 8h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 35¢ $102 8h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 47¢ $30 9h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 76¢ $139 9h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 70¢ $30 9h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 47¢ $68 9h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 24¢ $39 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.62 · official $114.38 · 1402 history records