Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc214…dfcc world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$6
other 14% −$2
crypto 6% $0
politics 6% +$20
sports 5% +$5
weather 3% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 16 +4.6% -5.4% 69% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 16 +4.6% -5.4% 69% 6% -9.0%
all 33 +1.9% -7.8% 58% 12% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 12% -7.6%
10% -16.6% 9% -16.4%
15% -24.7% 6% -24.5%
20% -32.1% 6% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.31 per $1 lost it wins $3.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage473d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $17 +$1 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $131 +$2 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $195 −$3 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $193 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $48 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $48 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $7 +$5 +73%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? May 07 $42 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Apr 01 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration? Mar 29 $40 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $40 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $4 −$3 -70%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $3 $0 +13%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 22 $37 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Mar 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 4? Mar 06 $18 +$23 +127%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 6? Mar 04 $21 −$3 -13%
West Virginia vs. Utah Mar 04 $16 +$5 +32%
Clippers vs. Suns Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $10 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $40 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $50 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 34¢ $18 41h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $17 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $48 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $42 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $7 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $49 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $33 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $33 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $2 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $7 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $40 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $49 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $16 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 135 history records