Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc214…6a42 sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$263 (-8%) realized −$254 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%25W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$371
14 days−$290
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$74
other 25% −$139
world 2% −$77
crypto 1% −$31
finance 1% −$20
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -20.5% -28.1% 38% 38% -28.8%
≤30d 60 +0.3% -9.3% 42% 42% -10.0%
≤90d 65 -7.4% -16.2% 38% 38% -19.8%
all 65 -7.4% -16.2% 38% 38% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 38% -19.8%
10% -24.3% 38% -27.5%
15% -31.6% 38% -34.5%
20% -38.3% 35% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$41 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$254
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses25 / 40
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions5
Markets (closed)65 / 75
History coverage102d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 48¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+49%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 57¢ 84¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+48%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $25 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 3¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $27 +$52 +197%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $32 −$32 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $40 +$25 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $305 −$300 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $13 +$46 +344%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $27 +$23 +83%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $33 +$16 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $64 +$36 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $29 +$71 +248%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 +$21 +52%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $202 +$80 +40%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$97 +474%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $22 +$19 +87%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$63 +307%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$25 +124%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 +$20 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 26¢ $51 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $46 6h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 13h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 13h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $27 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND W BUY 11¢ $31 14h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY 21¢ $61 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 41¢ $41 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $32 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $15 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $51 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $305 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $31 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $40 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $101 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $31 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $26 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $31 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $51 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 17¢ $20 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $25 5d
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 11¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.44 · official $106.44 (match) · 104 history records