Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:53:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc212…18b9 crypto 518 markets active 0h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$471 (-11%) realized −$470 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%202W / 314L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$135
14 days+$47
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$360
crypto 21% −$104
other 15% −$21
world 1% −$35
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +31.5% +19.0% 20% 18% +19.8%
≤30d 118 -2.1% -11.4% 30% 29% -8.0%
≤90d 317 -6.6% -15.5% 37% 35% -12.6%
all 516 -6.7% -15.6% 39% 37% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 37% -20.5%
10% -23.7% 36% -28.1%
15% -31.0% 34% -35.1%
20% -37.8% 30% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$470
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses202 / 314
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)516 / 518
History coverage212d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 269 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $31 −$5 -17%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 +$68 +662%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $12 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$133 +1290%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $13 +$30 +221%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +19%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs Jun 17 $5 +$18 +356%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$57 +1116%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 +$90 +874%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +203%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 20m
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 58¢ $31 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 3 IR Iran? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 46h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Ecuador 38¢ $25 46h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 94¢ $78 46h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 4d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.38 · official $5.38 (match) · 1064 history records