Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:31:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc20e…642a sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$787 (+5%) realized +$787 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$502per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$934
other 41% +$497
world 10% +$1,132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -26.8% -33.8% 52% 48% +5.0%
≤30d 31 -26.8% -33.8% 52% 48% +5.0%
≤90d 31 -26.8% -33.8% 52% 48% +5.0%
all 31 -26.8% -33.8% 52% 48% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 48% +5.0%
10% -40.1% 42% -5.1%
15% -45.9% 32% -14.2%
20% -51.2% 16% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$788) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$307 vs −$156 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$787
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage6d
Avg bet$502
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,864 +$136 +7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $299 +$186 +62%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $689 +$211 +31%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $259 +$141 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $805 +$195 +24%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $788 +$412 +52%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $124 −$121 -97%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $97 −$95 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -97%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,175 +$825 +70%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $314 +$131 +42%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $108 −$105 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $116 −$113 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $541 −$534 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $505 +$237 +47%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1,102 +$437 +40%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $409 −$400 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $409 −$400 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $271 +$129 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,764 +$256 +14%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $169 −$168 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $266 −$260 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi Jun 22 $1,014 +$921 +91%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $787 +$282 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,910 +$379 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 76¢ $689 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,864 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $299 11h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $259 12h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $525 12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $805 12h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $263 12h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 11¢ $124 12h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $97 12h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 12h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes $20 12h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $314 32h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes $28 42h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $108 42h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $116 42h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,175 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $541 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1,102 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $409 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $409 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY 67¢ $505 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $169 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1,240 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 44¢ $203 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $524 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $271 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $8 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 73¢ $302 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records