Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C2 0xc20b…6b8d crypto 357 markets active 0h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,109 (-9%) realized −$5,954 · open −$155
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%193W / 162L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$399
7 days−$439
14 days−$12,929
30 days−$12,929
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6,537
other 0% −$168
sports 0% +$8
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$10
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -22.7% -30.0% 52% 44% -24.3%
≤30d 67 -46.4% -51.5% 33% 30% -69.6%
≤90d 67 -46.4% -51.5% 33% 30% -69.6%
all 355 -1.9% -11.3% 54% 51% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 51% -17.8%
10% -19.7% 46% -25.7%
15% -27.5% 42% -32.9%
20% -34.6% 36% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$196 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$5,954
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses193 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)355 / 357
History coverage224d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 50¢ 48¢ $95 $92 −$3 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $154 $1 −$153 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $138 −$98 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $191 −$191 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $139 +$62 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $139 −$134 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $224 +$98 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $171 +$53 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $267 +$64 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$43 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$28 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $144 −$127 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $206 +$43 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $239 −$127 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $114 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $65 −$65 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 02 $101 +$32 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $96 −$96 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 02 $20 +$20 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 02 $52 +$27 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 02 $51 −$11 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 02 $85 +$18 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 02 $88 +$74 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 02 $63 +$25 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 02 $53 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 02 $621 −$100 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 02 $800 +$408 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 02 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 02 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 02 $226 −$221 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 02 $246 −$246 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 02 $501 −$218 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 02 $352 −$352 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $98 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $99 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $60 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $27 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $14 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $139 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $17 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $14 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $13 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $17 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $8 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.74 · official $98.62 · 2266 history records