Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:23:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc20b…032b world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%16W / 14L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$2
politics 9% $0
finance 6% +$3
economics 4% $0
tech 3% +$1
other 1% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 12 -2.3% -11.6% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -1.8% -11.1% 43% 0% -9.5%
all 30 -1.4% -10.8% 53% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage301d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 85¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $22 −$3 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $46 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $83 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $84 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $165 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $75 +$5 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $85 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $73 +$3 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $5 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $19 −$4 -19%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 20 $63 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $10 $0 +3%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 19 $69 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 25 $33 +$1 +2%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $9 $0 +2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Sep 02 $1 $0 -19%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 25 $2 $0 -12%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 US Open? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $79 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $64 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 33h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 28¢ $19 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 28¢ $18 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 28¢ $8 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $46 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $39 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $46 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $66 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $16 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $2 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $22 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $6 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $52 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $10 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $23 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $44 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $34 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $7 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 73¢ $34 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 50¢ $80 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.05 · official $79.05 (match) · 120 history records