Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C2 0xc20a…e328 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$67 · open −$58
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$134
14 days+$165
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$26
other 38% +$100
politics 9% −$38
sports 9% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +38.0% +24.8% 67% 67% +27.0%
≤30d 12 +30.1% +17.7% 58% 58% +13.7%
≤90d 13 +20.1% +8.7% 54% 54% +3.8%
all 13 +20.1% +8.7% 54% 54% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 54% +3.8%
10% -1.7% 54% -6.2%
15% -11.2% 54% -15.2%
20% -19.9% 46% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$35 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)13 / 21
History coverage58d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $109 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $78 $82 +$4 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $114 $81 −$33 (-29%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 61¢ $29 $39 +$10 (+35%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $62 −$34 -55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $111 +$102 +92%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 +$15 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$24 +78%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $48 +$24 +49%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $19 +$22 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$18 +158%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $54 +$87 +161%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $57 −$56 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $77 −$32 -41%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $28 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $28 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $14 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 55¢ $30 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 40¢ $16 2d
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $15 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $21 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 5d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 5d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 45¢ $29 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 6d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 10d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $57 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $62 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $50 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $109 19d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $117 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $48 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $45 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $111 23d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 50d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $77 55d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.19 · official $412.19 (match) · 52 history records