Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:36:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C2 0xc208…bf1d world 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$166 (-19%) realized −$130 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%26W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$22
14 days−$114
30 days−$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$200
other 11% +$18
crypto 7% +$38
politics 6% −$18
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -50.5% -55.2% 40% 40% -58.6%
≤30d 44 -19.1% -26.8% 55% 45% -35.4%
≤90d 50 -14.4% -22.5% 52% 42% -26.5%
all 50 -14.4% -22.5% 52% 42% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 42% -26.5%
10% -30.0% 34% -33.5%
15% -36.7% 18% -39.9%
20% -42.9% 14% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses26 / 24
Open positions14
Markets (closed)50 / 64
History coverage38d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $33 $14 −$19 (-58%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 58¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 47¢ 43¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Will Sawin win the 2026 Fields Medal? No 87¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Alexander Efimov win the 2026 Fields Medal? No 92¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 72¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $10 +$2 +20%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +28%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $100 −$33 -33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $13 +$7 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -76%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 14 $16 +$6 +38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $70 −$47 -68%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by May 31? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? Jun 10 $16 −$11 -68%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $15 +$4 +27%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +32%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $10 +$21 +209%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 04 $10 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$9 +85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $26 +$10 +40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1 $0 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $5 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $30 +$2 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 24 $26 +$56 +219%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 24 $5 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 58¢ $10 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 58¢ $31 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 58¢ $20 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $6 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 7d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $67 9d
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 83¢ $10 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $11 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $1 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $23 13d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 65¢ $13 13d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 16d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 19d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $5 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 0¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 70¢ $12 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 59¢ $10 19d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 19d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 20d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 20d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 20d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.78 · official $119.79 (match) · 146 history records