Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C2 0xc206…20e1 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$219 (+19%) realized +$240 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$235
7 days+$288
14 days+$225
30 days+$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$211
crypto 2% +$14
sports 1% −$11
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +20.3% +8.9% 70% 70% +15.2%
≤30d 31 +4.8% -5.2% 61% 61% +8.7%
≤90d 31 +4.8% -5.2% 61% 61% +8.7%
all 31 +4.8% -5.2% 61% 61% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 61% +8.7%
10% -14.3% 55% -1.7%
15% -22.5% 42% -11.2%
20% -30.1% 32% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$240
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage8d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 28¢ $37 $16 −$21 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $306 +$78 +25%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 +$78 +157%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $153 +$18 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$51 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $49 +$6 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$4 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $47 +$17 +35%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $56 +$31 +54%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$5 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$11 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$14 +28%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $37 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $286 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $206 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 65¢ $98 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 31¢ $30 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $153 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $49 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.10 · official $16.11 (match) · 69 history records