Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C2 0xc200…0ae9 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,060 (-5%) realized −$1,028 · open −$32

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate56%10W / 8L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,028per market

Trades / day3.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$4,668now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$3,688

7 days+$49

14 days+$49

30 days+$49

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-27.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-20.0%	-27.6%	56%	50%	-9.2%
≤30d	18	-20.0%	-27.6%	56%	50%	-9.2%
≤90d	18	-20.0%	-27.6%	56%	50%	-9.2%
all	18	-20.0%	-27.6%	56%	50%	-9.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.6%	50%	-9.2%
10%	-34.6%	44%	-17.9%
15%	-40.9%	39%	-25.8%
20%	-46.7%	33%	-33.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -20% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,253) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -38% → late -2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$480 vs −$594 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.01 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$4,668

Realized−$1,028

Unrealized−$32

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses10 / 8

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage8d

Avg bet$1,028

Trades / day3.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	74¢	$4,700	$4,668	−$32 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$3,158	+$1,803	+57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$2,000	+$1,142	+57%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$106	−$100	-94%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$1,368	+$745	+54%
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$1,253	+$99	+8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$531	−$500	-94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$1,430	−$1,350	-94%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$947	+$492	+52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$1,002	−$1,002	-100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 26	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$930	−$930	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$840	−$840	-100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$610	+$341	+56%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$158	+$99	+63%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$105	+$45	+43%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$89	+$30	+34%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$53	+$9	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$4,925	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4,960	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$3,158	15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3,142	23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$2,000	40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	27¢	$106	42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,113	43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	59¢	$1,368	45h
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,352	45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	28¢	$531	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$1,253	2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	37¢	$1,430	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,439	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$947	2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	8¢	$11	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$610	3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	50¢	$1,002	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	44¢	$930	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	66¢	$578	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	66¢	$263	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$257	4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	56¢	$158	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$150	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	64¢	$105	4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	94¢	$119	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$89	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	82¢	$61	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$53	5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$21	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,668.24 · official $4,668.24 (match) · 35 history records