Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:09:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1fc…4a59 other 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$408 (-6%) realized −$339 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate62%53W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$334
7 days−$334
14 days−$334
30 days−$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$476
other 33% −$295
tech 15% +$38
sports 8% −$85
politics 1% +$12
world 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +2.3% -7.4% 74% 43% -17.9%
≤30d 23 +2.3% -7.4% 74% 43% -17.9%
≤90d 23 +2.3% -7.4% 74% 43% -17.9%
all 86 -7.3% -16.2% 62% 47% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 47% -20.0%
10% -24.2% 33% -27.7%
15% -31.5% 29% -34.7%
20% -38.2% 21% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$57 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$339
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses53 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage228d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 27¢ 8¢ $100 $31 −$69 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$69 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $207 −$136 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $134 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$42 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $205 −$7 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $105 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $205 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $316 −$316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $206 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $214 +$53 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $105 −$14 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$36 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? Jun 19 $979 +$38 +4%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-24? Nov 24 $237 −$237 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $43 +$9 +20%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-24? Nov 24 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $45 +$29 +64%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $90 +$12 +14%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $45 +$9 +19%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $45 −$25 -55%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $39 +$29 +75%
Will Samsunspor win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $45 +$84 +186%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $45 +$33 +72%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $45 +$19 +42%
Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Will FK Krasnodar win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $30 −$8 -25%
Will FK Spartak Moskva win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $30 +$35 +117%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Kocaelispor win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $45 −$45 -100%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2025-11-09? Nov 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will CD Santa Clara win on 2025-11-08? Nov 09 $45 +$13 +30%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-08? Nov 09 $45 +$26 +59%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $45 +$28 +61%
Parma vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 Nov 08 $45 +$48 +106%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $45 +$20 +45%
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $45 +$41 +92%
Will Juventus win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $45 +$20 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $110 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $35 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $30 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $42 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $16 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $117 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $147 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $97 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $55 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $52 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $58 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.48 · official $50.00 · 180 history records