Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:48:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C1 0xc1fb…04d1 other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate84%87W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$504per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$100
politics 2% −$12
crypto 1% +$9
economics 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
sports 0% +$38
tech 0% +$1
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 104 -0.3% -9.8% 84% 27% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 27% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 21% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 11% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses87 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage609d
Avg bet$504
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 23 $92 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 24 $92 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 26 $92 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor reach $9.25 in February? Mar 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will Netflix dip to $35 in February? Mar 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $593 in February? Mar 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $6 in January? Feb 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $156 in January? Feb 23 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? Feb 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January? Feb 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will Watford FC win on 2025-11-22? Dec 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Oxford United FC win on 2025-11-28? Dec 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2025-11-21? Dec 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2025-11-28? Dec 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-29? Dec 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Derby County FC win on 2025-11-22? Dec 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Stoke City FC win on 2025-11-29? Dec 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Preston North End FC win on 2025-11-21? Dec 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-11-30? Dec 07 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Stoke City FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw? Dec 07 $16 +$5 +30%
Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5) Dec 07 $8 +$3 +32%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-11-30? Dec 07 $10 +$3 +32%
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw? Dec 07 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Oxford United FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw? Dec 07 $11 +$3 +30%
CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5 Dec 07 $10 +$9 +92%
Will Derby County FC vs. Watford FC end in a draw? Nov 28 $8 +$3 +41%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw? Nov 28 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Preston North End FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC end in a draw? Nov 28 $11 +$5 +43%
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 28 $12 +$3 +24%
Will Coventry City FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC end in a draw? Nov 28 $12 +$4 +32%
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 28 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 28 $15 +$12 +79%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. CA Central Córdoba end in a draw? Nov 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2025-11-10? Nov 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2025-11-10? Nov 20 $9 +$1 +16%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw? Nov 20 $8 +$3 +35%
Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-0.5) Nov 20 $10 +$3 +27%
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. CA Central Córdoba: O/U 2.5 Nov 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2025-11-10? Nov 20 $10 +$5 +56%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2025-11-10? Nov 20 $11 +$7 +70%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Nov 09 $110 $0 -0%
Will Victory win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary elec Oct 14 $107 $0 +0%
Will PDC win the most seats in the next Bolivia Senate election? Aug 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Aug 11 $83 −$3 -3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 06 $139 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June meeting? Jul 15 $130 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Alternative '91 win the most seats in the 2025 Sur Jun 04 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 17 $138 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in March? Apr 03 $138 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $93 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $92 30d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $92 58d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $92 110d
Will Opendoor reach $9.25 in February? BUY No 99¢ $16 119d
Will Microsoft reach $593 in February? BUY No 100¢ $48 119d
Will Netflix dip to $35 in February? BUY No 100¢ $28 119d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $26 166d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in January? BUY No 99¢ $30 166d
Will Chainlink dip to $6 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 166d
Will NVIDIA dip to $156 in January? BUY No 97¢ $20 166d
Will Stoke City FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $16 207d
Will Hull City AFC win on 2025-11-29? BUY No 83¢ $16 207d
Will Stoke City FC win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $16 207d
Will Oxford United FC win on 2025-11-28? BUY No 86¢ $11 207d
Will Oxford United FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $11 207d
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2025-11-28? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 207d
CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 207d
Spread: CF Cruz Azul (-1.5) BUY CD Guadalajara 76¢ $8 207d
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 76¢ $10 207d
Will CF Cruz Azul vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $10 207d
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 207d
Will Birmingham City FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $10 214d
Will Norwich City FC win on 2025-11-22? BUY No 82¢ $10 214d
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2025-11-22? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 214d
Will Watford FC win on 2025-11-22? BUY No 69¢ $7 214d
Will Derby County FC vs. Watford FC end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $8 214d
Will Derby County FC win on 2025-11-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 214d
Will Coventry City FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $12 214d
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2025-11-22? BUY No 81¢ $12 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.65 · official $92.65 (match) · 220 history records