trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $16 | −$1 | -4% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Jun 13 | $9 | +$8 | +82% |
| Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? | Dec 12 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? | Oct 12 | $36 | −$17 | -47% |
| Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Oct 11 | $2 | +$115 | +5734% |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? | Sep 07 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Sep 07 | $40 | −$28 | -70% |
| Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15? | Sep 04 | $53 | −$34 | -63% |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025? | Sep 03 | $6 | −$3 | -46% |
| Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? | Aug 31 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Rodrygo Silva de Goes sign with a new club during the transfer wi | Aug 31 | $5 | +$3 | +52% |
| Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Houthi strike on Israel by August 31? | Aug 27 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? | Aug 25 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Syria join the Abraham Accords in 2025? | Aug 25 | $10 | +$1 | +7% |
| Israel x Syria security deal before September? | Aug 24 | $1 | $0 | -12% |
| Will Atletico Madrid vs. Elche CF end in a draw? | Aug 23 | $46 | +$15 | +33% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-08-23? | Aug 23 | $192 | −$146 | -76% |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35-40 million views on day 1? | Aug 17 | $220 | −$12 | -6% |
| Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 17 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Israel strikes Yemen by August 31? | Aug 17 | $90 | +$96 | +107% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Aug 17 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 10 | $20 | −$3 | -17% |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 09 | $30 | −$20 | -66% |
| Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 09 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 09 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Ursula von der Leyen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +38.8% | +25.6% | 50% | 50% | +15.1% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +38.8% | +25.6% | 50% | 50% | +15.1% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +38.8% | +25.6% | 50% | 50% | +15.1% |
| all | 27 | +25.1% | +13.2% | 22% | 19% | -26.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +13.2% | 19% | -26.2% |
| 10% | +2.4% | 19% | -33.2% |
| 15% | -7.5% | 15% | -39.7% |
| 20% | -16.6% | 15% | -45.6% |