Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C1 0xc1f6…70a7 politics 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$14
politics 37% −$12
sports 5% −$27
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 113 -5.2% -14.2% 2% 1% -9.8%
all 130 -3.1% -12.3% 5% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 5% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×10.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 123
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage117d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $219 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $197 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $698 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $350 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $190 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $365 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $158 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $140 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $166 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $187 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $351 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $168 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 09 $144 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $147 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $163 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $145 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $153 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $258 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $137 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $138 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $137 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 27 $195 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $181 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $182 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $185 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $288 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $195 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $371 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $153 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $195 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $295 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $179 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 6h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $25 15h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $25 20h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $32 45h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 10d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 10d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 10d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 11d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 12d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $204 23d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $204 27d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $190 27d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $190 28d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $138 28d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $138 30d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $170 30d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $170 30d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $158 30d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $158 31d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $140 31d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $140 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 393 history records