Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:56:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C1 0xc1f5…a067 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$59 (+10%) realized +$61 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$9
14 days+$56
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$32
crypto 5% +$23
politics 2% −$4
world 1% −$2
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -20.9% -28.5% 50% 50% -7.6%
≤30d 21 -6.3% -15.3% 57% 57% -0.6%
≤90d 21 -6.3% -15.3% 57% 57% -0.6%
all 21 -6.3% -15.3% 57% 57% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 57% -0.6%
10% -23.4% 52% -10.1%
15% -30.8% 43% -18.8%
20% -37.6% 19% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage152d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $38 +$25 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$17 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $111 −$4 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $64 +$10 +16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$22 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 +$23 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 +$10 +37%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$13 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$6 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$4 +50%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $3 +$3 +114%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 08 $10 −$4 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $60 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $38 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $19 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 51¢ $19 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $39 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $68 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $64 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $15 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $32 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $8 9d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $18 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.79 · official $63.79 (match) · 49 history records