Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:47:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
C1 0xc1f4…dd7c sports 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$2,759 (+17%) realized +$2,546 · open +$213
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%41W / 25L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$5,446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$209
7 days+$629
14 days+$593
30 days+$1,253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% +$950
other 28% +$759
world 25% +$286
politics 5% +$63
crypto 4% +$295
economics 4% +$425
tech 2% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +35.3% +22.4% 56% 56% +18.3%
≤30d 50 +27.2% +15.1% 62% 62% +5.1%
≤90d 64 +35.3% +22.4% 64% 64% +14.2%
all 66 +31.2% +18.7% 62% 62% +11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.7% 62% +11.9%
10% +7.3% 61% +1.2%
15% -3.0% 56% -8.5%
20% -12.5% 53% -17.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$138 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$5,446
Realized+$2,546
Unrealized+$213
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses41 / 25
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions25
Markets (closed)66 / 91
History coverage97d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 38¢ 88¢ $261 $607 +$346 (+133%)
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $375 $571 +$196 (+52%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 60¢ 54¢ $600 $540 −$60 (-10%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Yes 53¢ 58¢ $483 $531 +$48 (+10%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 39¢ 48¢ $361 $435 +$74 (+21%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $302 $346 +$44 (+15%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 39¢ 98¢ $128 $321 +$193 (+150%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 78¢ $184 $300 +$115 (+62%)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes 50¢ 72¢ $200 $288 +$88 (+44%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $306 $287 −$18 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 67¢ $123 $216 +$94 (+76%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $187 $187 +$0 (+0%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $156 $157 +$1 (+1%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $141 $156 +$15 (+11%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $135 $124 −$11 (-8%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 64¢ $109 $111 +$3 (+2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $108 $91 −$17 (-16%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 34¢ 18¢ $103 $53 −$50 (-49%)
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 60¢ $21 $34 +$13 (+61%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 38¢ 10¢ $123 $31 −$92 (-75%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $200 $22 −$178 (-89%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Yes 36¢ 6¢ $112 $17 −$95 (-85%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 2¢ $235 $10 −$224 (-96%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 39¢ 1¢ $192 $6 −$186 (-97%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 31¢ 1¢ $90 $4 −$86 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $109 +$101 +93%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $97 −$96 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $22 +$103 +474%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $184 +$101 +55%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $246 +$269 +109%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 22 $171 −$169 -99%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $106 +$153 +144%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $92 +$150 +163%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $70 +$49 +70%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $156 +$148 +95%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $185 −$185 -100%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Daniel Rinco Jun 20 $111 −$4 -3%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $158 −$156 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $128 +$102 +79%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $178 +$102 +57%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $97 +$103 +105%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $349 −$346 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $75 +$100 +133%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $6 +$2 +39%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $127 +$100 +79%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $140 −$140 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $317 +$100 +32%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $230 −$228 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $325 +$100 +31%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $118 +$102 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $118 +$102 +86%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $144 +$100 +70%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $121 +$99 +82%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 12 $92 +$100 +108%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $312 +$101 +32%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 11 $96 +$100 +104%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 10 $212 +$100 +47%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $128 +$102 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $89 −$88 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $117 −$117 -100%
Makarska: Rebecca Sramkova vs Tara Wurth Jun 05 $105 −$2 -2%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $90 +$102 +114%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $49 +$100 +203%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $598 +$425 +71%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $211 −$209 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $156 +$100 +64%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $313 −$313 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $494 +$61 +12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $135 +$199 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $158 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $15 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $77 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $17 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $125 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 22h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $97 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $109 24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $184 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Sara Bejlek 47¢ $246 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 66¢ $10 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Michael Mmoh BUY Michael Mmoh 66¢ $7 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 52¢ $11 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 52¢ $3 3d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Lukas Neumayer vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Lukas Neumayer 52¢ $157 3d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 50¢ $44 4d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 51¢ $111 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $87 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $98 4d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Daniel Rinco BUY Jamie Mackenzie 51¢ $111 5d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 60¢ $158 5d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 55¢ $128 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $178 7d
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,446.39 · official $5,446.43 (match) · 444 history records