Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:13:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1f4…2a00 other 284 markets active 2h ago coverage 598d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+5%) realized +$69 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate69%187W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$90
14 days+$102
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$16
sports 20% +$5
crypto 8% +$13
weather 6% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +21.7% +10.1% 50% 18% +24.2%
≤30d 151 +12.9% +2.1% 78% 15% +4.8%
≤90d 264 -6.2% -15.1% 69% 11% -9.4%
all 271 -5.5% -14.5% 69% 13% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 13% -7.2%
10% -22.7% 11% -16.1%
15% -30.2% 9% -24.2%
20% -37.0% 9% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

598d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses187 / 84
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)271 / 284
History coverage598d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 27? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+203%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 28? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 28? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 28? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 28? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $18 +$30 +162%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $42 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $1 $0 -13%
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w Jun 27 $3 −$1 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 26 $10 $0 +3%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w Jun 26 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 26 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $10 −$7 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $9 +$99 +1084%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $7 +$16 +226%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $3 $0 +3%
Exact Score: IK Start 0 - 1 Vålerenga Fotball? Jun 23 $1 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Notts County FC 2 - 1 Salford City FC? Jun 23 $1 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Notts County FC 1 - 2 Salford City FC? Jun 23 $1 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $7 −$5 -70%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -92%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $15 −$14 -89%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $31 −$24 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -11%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$23 +229%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $18 +$5 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $13 +$3 +23%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 13? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $9 +$8 +84%
CD Cobresal leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $48 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 11h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C on June 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 28? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 28? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 28? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 27? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 27? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 33¢ $1 27h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w SELL Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 36h
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 38h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 38h
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w SELL Yes 67¢ $3 38h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 44h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $25 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.51 · official $36.51 (match) · 595 history records