Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C1 0xc1f4…5344 crypto 218 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-1%) realized −$93 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%97W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$261
other 8% −$22
tech 1% −$4
world 0% +$82
politics 0% −$8
sports 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +22.3% +10.7% 80% 80% +2.9%
≤30d 197 -4.9% -13.9% 48% 36% -13.7%
≤90d 201 -5.3% -14.3% 48% 36% -13.7%
all 202 -4.0% -13.1% 48% 36% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 36% -12.4%
10% -21.4% 27% -20.8%
15% -29.0% 17% -28.4%
20% -36.0% 12% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses97 / 105
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)202 / 218
History coverage112d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 82¢ 82¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-43%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-76%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+88%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 29 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup May 29 $5 −$1 -10%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $12 −$2 -20%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $5 $0 -2%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $17 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 29 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 29 $12 +$8 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 29 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 29 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 28 $54 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 28 $32 +$16 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 28 $44 −$18 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 28 $45 −$44 -96%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2 $0 -4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $4 +$1 +36%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 28 $28 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 28 $22 −$15 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 28 $27 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 28 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 28 $21 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 28 $28 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 28 $16 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 28 $23 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 28 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 28 $26 +$15 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 28 $19 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 28 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 28 $35 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 27 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 27 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 27 $79 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY No 82¢ $4 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.41 · official $115.41 (match) · 2144 history records