Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1f3…229f crypto 1263 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,274 (-6%) realized −$2,275 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%536W / 738L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,479
other 1% −$208
sports 1% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -72.8% -75.4% 15% 15% -72.9%
≤30d 520 -23.4% -30.7% 37% 36% -25.9%
≤90d 599 -20.8% -28.3% 37% 36% -26.2%
all 1274 -16.6% -24.5% 42% 41% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.5% 41% -20.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.7% 37% -28.4%
15% -38.3% 32% -35.3%
20% -44.4% 27% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$21 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$2,275
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses536 / 738
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1274 / 1263
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1274 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 42¢ 42¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $73 −$25 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $29 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$14 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$19 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $56 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.61 · official $21.97 · 3500 history records