Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C1 0xc1f1…9094 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 740d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$104 (-9%) realized −$100 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip

Net edge-53%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$386per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$596now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 740d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-52.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+4.1%	-5.8%	100%	0%	-5.8%
≤30d	1	+4.1%	-5.8%	100%	0%	-5.8%
≤90d	1	+4.1%	-5.8%	100%	0%	-5.8%
all	2	-48.0%	-52.9%	50%	0%	-6.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-52.9%	0%	-6.0%
10%	-57.4%	0%	-15.0%
15%	-61.5%	0%	-23.2%
20%	-65.3%	0%	-30.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -48% · $-wt -91% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$104 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.04 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

740d coverage

Net worth$596

Realized−$100

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage740d

Avg bet$386

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$600	$596	−$4 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$110	+$5	+4%
Is $DJT real?	Jun 18	$444	−$104	-24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-30?	BUY Yes	76¢	$604	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	96¢	$110	7d
Is $DJT real?	SELL Yes	20¢	$270	739d
Is $DJT real?	SELL Yes	20¢	$69	739d
Is $DJT real?	BUY Yes	25¢	$444	739d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $595.59 · official $595.59 (match) · 6 history records