Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1ed…2b09 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 32L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$1
other 31% +$3
politics 22% $0
economics 7% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 -3.3% -12.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 16 -3.3% -12.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
all 39 -1.1% -10.5% 18% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -9.3%
10% -19.1% 3% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage298d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $78 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $38 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $75 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $3 $0 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -41%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $38 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $76 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $6 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $1 $0 +6%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 24 $40 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $9 +$3 +31%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during address to UN General Asse Sep 23 $2 $0 -22%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $38 +$1 +2%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Aug 29 $38 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Aug 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $37 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 14h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $26 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $11 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $14 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $24 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $36 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $26 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $14 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $41 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $41 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 4¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records