Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C1 0xc1ec…8d8e sports 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$870 (+4%) realized +$903 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate34%23W / 45L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day64.0pace
Fees−$392est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$309
7 days+$151
14 days−$121
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$297
other 21% +$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -14.5% -22.6% 34% 24% -6.9%
≤30d 68 -5.8% -14.7% 34% 25% -8.2%
≤90d 68 -5.8% -14.7% 34% 25% -8.2%
all 68 -5.8% -14.7% 34% 25% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 25% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 22% -16.9%
15% -30.3% 18% -25.0%
20% -37.2% 16% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$56 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$587
Realized+$903
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses23 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$392
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage8d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day64.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 47¢ 44¢ $620 $587 −$33 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $292 +$6 +2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $563 −$57 -10%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $2,123 +$35 +2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $6 −$11 -198%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 −$2 -38%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $21 −$9 -43%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $9 −$18 -195%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$7 -37%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $461 −$69 -15%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $1,466 −$22 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $168 +$46 +27%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $113 +$57 +50%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $414 +$84 +20%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $8 −$2 -26%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $106 +$2 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $35 +$25 +71%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $14 +$33 +232%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $505 +$219 +43%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $32 −$61 -195%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $2,393 +$291 +12%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$39 -194%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $4 −$8 -194%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $392 −$374 -95%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $700 −$317 -45%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $111 −$24 -22%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$10 -194%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$20 -194%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $519 +$516 +100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$20 -196%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $16 −$2 -13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $82 +$4 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,009 +$635 +32%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2,000 −$384 -19%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 −$40 -197%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$29 -199%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $543 −$7 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$20 -196%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $285 −$77 -27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$23 +234%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $182 −$5 -3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$28 +272%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $102 +$216 +212%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,402 −$133 -10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $786 −$67 -8%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $692 −$185 -27%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $432 −$23 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 −$6 -194%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$20 -195%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 42¢ $187 0m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $994 1m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 75¢ $298 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 33¢ $75 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 50¢ $361 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 36¢ $7 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 53¢ $181 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 33¢ $115 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $236 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 50¢ $277 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 51¢ $74 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 39¢ $259 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $0 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $14 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $9 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $84 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $466 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $4 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $393 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $7 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $8 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $268 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $292 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 57¢ $231 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 58¢ $344 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 66¢ $103 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 31¢ $12 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 36¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $587.11 · official $587.11 (match) · 643 history records